Rumors are circulating today that Hosni Mubarak will step down tonight. The army chief of staff spoke to the crowd in Tahrir Square and said, "All your demands will be met." In addition, the military council met without Mubarak, who normally is the chair of the council. As I am writing, it is impossible to know if Mubarak will truly step down, or if this will be another weak attempt to placate the protesters. Whether it is now or in September, post-Mubarak Egypt will have several groups in play to shape the new government. It seems unlikely that the military or the old hands from Mubarak's National Democratic Party (NDP) will be able to keep the current system in place and simply replace Mubarak at the top. Overwhelming demand for broader, democratic changes will most likely win out in the end. The challenge will be determining who will step forward to represent the diverse factions in Tahrir Square.
The ouster of Mubarak is not the only goal of the protests. They demand the dismantling of his dictatorial system in order to prevent another autocrat from taking over. Egypt's emergency law allows for security forces to arrest and torture with impunity. Also, the constitution allows the president to appoint half the upper house of parliament. One of the most important steps toward a democratic future would be to lift bans on political parties. Punishing corruption in the legal avenues and guaranteeing elections that can operate without coercion from the security forces are also big, but necessary steps toward real reform.
The wild card in this situation is the role of the military. Initially seen as non-partisan force allowing open expression by protesters, public perception changed last week when air force fighter jets buzzed Tahrir Square and the army personnel stationed around the square stood by as pro-Mubarak thugs/plain clothes police officers attacked civilians. In addition, Human Rights Watch reports that they have documented over one hundred arrests of protesters and many cases of arbitrary torture, often right near Tahrir Square. However, the army also eventually began to arrest pro-Mubarak troublemakers. As Egypt approaches the precipice of change, the army has made vague statements about preventing the country from sliding into chaos, and acknowledging that the people's will must be recognized. Mubarak and his newly minted vice president Omar Suleiman (head of intelligence) have also warned that if protesters are unwilling to make some compromises, the military will take power in a "coup."
Nevertheless, today the military's promise and Mubarak's anticipated departure have raised expectations to a level that will only be satisfied with a significant step forward. Friday promises to be the biggest day of protests yet (gathering after Friday prayers is generally when the biggest protests occur across the broader Middle East). Having Mubarak step aside and hand the reigns to Suleiman will not be enough to quell the protests. Hosni Mubarak's son Gamal has already left Egypt and it seems unlikely that someone as closely identified with the regime as Omar Suleiman would be an acceptable replacement. As a veteran of the '62 war in Yemen as well as the '67 and '73 wars with Israel, Suleiman is believed to have significant support within the higher ups of the military. Also, he has never been a member of the ruling NDP, but that fun fact will do little to counter Suleiman's image as an NDP man.
The biggest deficit in the uprising is perhaps also its most important strength. The protesters are representative of a wide range of Egyptian life, including age, gender, occupation, and class. It is unlikely that the entire government will be scrapped, but no single faction would be capable of faithfully representing the vast and divergent set of interests held by the whole group. Right now the most visible individuals among the protesters have been Mohamed ElBaradei, Wael Ghonim, and a few members of the Muslim Brotherhood that had unproductive meetings with Suleiman earlier in the week. It remains to be seen if the uniting power of rebellion against an authoritarian leader can be translated into a functioning government where fair compromises between groups can be struck. As Mubarak's presidency seems to be coming to its end, all eyes will be on Egypt as they work out these complex issues on the path toward representative democracy.
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