Syria: Father Like Son?

Protests against the Syrian government have escalated significantly since tame protests in Damascus about heavy handed police in February. Various human rights groups estimate the number of deaths to be around 200 since then. The tone of protests has changed dramatically from portraying the rowdy secret police as a couple of bad eggs to demanding a complete overhaul of the government. Some of the protesters are openly calling for Assad to leave, but it is not clear that this is the majority opinion. 40 years after his father took power in a coup and more recently claiming that Syria was immune to the tumult affecting Tunisia and Egypt, Assad stands at a crossroads, does he step down or does he put quash the protests with the kind of brutality that will extinguish any inkling of revolution?

What he chooses largely depends on the military's willingness to kill its countrymen. There have already been reports of the secret police shooting soldiers who refused to fire on protesters. Assad has already gone through the standard progression of blaming foreign troublemakers, raising wages of government employees, promising reforms, firing his cabinet, and lifting the emergency law. The regime has taken to Twitter to fight the protesters by flooding the microblogging site with inane posts using the #Syria hashtag in order to dilute pro-reform tweets. None of this has worked to quell the protests and killing civilians has poisoned any chance that Assad could negotiate a compromise. The escalation forebodes Friday and Saturday to be the most violent days yet in Syria.


* The emergency law is gone in name only, Assad put in new laws that prohibit any political dissenters.

UPDATE: Instead of referencing back to an older post, here an excellent account of the Hama Massacre, in which the current president's father quashed a revolt by the Muslim Brotherhood and razed the town. He killed upwards of 10,000 people and Hama served as a deterrent for those who would challenge the Assad regime. "Hama Rules." (The chapter starts on page 76 and the analysis starts on 87.)

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Nautical Nomads

The Guardian has a feature by Johnny Langenheim with photos from James Morgan about the Bajau people, nomads who have in boats for hundreds of years. The piece brings up several interesting themes that are common in tales of globalization: a unique culture in a changing world, environmental concerns confronting modernity, a unique place in international trade, and unusual pets, to say the least.

Enal, photographed playing with his pet shark in Wangi Wangi, Indonesia

There's a great video from the Guardian after the jump

Egyptian Dissident Sentenced by Military Court

This does not bode well for the people who came out and supported the Tahrir Square protests that lead to the ouster of long time dictator Hosni Mubarak. Maikel Nabil Sanad, an Egyptian blogger who was arrested by Egyptian intelligence and interrogated during the protests, was just sentenced to three years in jail for a blog post attacking the military regime. One of his biggest accusations is that the military was secretly arming the police who were shooting protesters. He also accuses the junta of trying bamboozle the pro-democracy movement into believing that the military is supporting the revolution while they plan to replace Mubarak at the top instead of replacing the entire system.

One swallow does not a summer make, but it will certainly make pro-democracy factions in Egypt nervous of the new regime implementing genuine reforms.

Here is a picture of Maikel holding a sign saying, "we refuse the army stealing the people's revolution!"

Thanks to SO for translating.

Book Review: The Media Relations Department of Hizbollah Wishes You a Happy Birthday

Having just finished Neil MacFarquhar’s excellent book, The Media Relations Department of Hizbollah Wishes You a Happy Birthday, I am impressed at the true breadth and depth of his experience in the Middle East and North Africa. The book is an absolute must read for anyone intrigued by the recent unrest in the Arab world.

MacFarquhar worked as a journalist in the region for the better part of 30 years. The bookopens with his upbringing in Libya on whatamounted to an Texas oil company colony. From this vantage point, he relates funny anecdotes and explores cultural phenomena that are widely misunderstood in the United States. He covers a range of topics: the impact of satellite TV, the intrusiveness of secret police, fatwas, jihad, tribal relations, and the capacity and tolerance for reform in several countries. MacFarquhar illuminates causes of Arab ill will towards the U.S. and areas where the people of the region agree with American policy. The latter part of the book examines the potential for U.S. policy goals (i.e. American national security, democracy, human rights, security for Israel, etc.) and how the U.S. government could better cooperate with their Arab counterparts. He has three big policy shifts that would require a great deal of bravery for a politician of any stripe, as well as an earnest effort to recognize differences in political currents within the meaningfully diverse nations in the Middle East and North Africa.

1. Speak to the citizenry about their concerns on their level. For example, we should not dictate that education curriculums have to change despite that the status quo has served to create foot soldiers for Al Qaeda. U.S. policy makers should listen to parents’ concerns about the schools’ inadequacies and ask questions that highlight mutual concerns without dictating specific curricular changes. This explicit common ground will apply indirect pressure on regimes. MacFarquhar says that the U.S. focuses too much on short-term goals. The U.S. is willing to turn a blind eye to kabuki democracies in exchange for cooperation on energy issues or the war on terror. MacFarquhar points out that criticizing the regimes in Egypt and Saudi Arabia would have likely led to the loss of an ally. He adds that an open society could oppose Washington because its policies might go against the grain of popular opinion.
2. Vocally support change regardless of how its weak proponents are or if the goals mirror U.S. interests. He suggests that the U.S. should only throw its support behind reform advocates that have stellar reputations in their home countries and try to avoid individuals attempting to capitalize on U.S. support by echoing key policy vernacular. He adds that it would probably be better to strengthen civic institutions rather than push for elections. In many countries, the political parties are anemic at best, with the most active opposition parties being the Islamist parties. He says that this could be problematic for U.S. policy makers as a group similar to Hamas could ultimately win elections and, likewise, create an impasse. (insert note about political participation & concentrated interest). He adds that, “Washington should not lose any opportunity to be seen as a friend of the little guy, and not just a friend of the princes.” (p.356)
3. The U.S. should condemn all repression, especially the near-constant harassment that most people suffer at the hands of the secret police. The U.S. was very vocal about tyranny in the Soviet bloc and most Middle East secret police were mentored by Soviet agencies. “Real stability and security should be rooted in stronger political systems.” MacFarquhar argues that most Arabs do not want to trade in despotic secular regimes for despotic theocratic regimes. The author states that what people want is less corruption and better government services, and they think that religious parties are the only ones strong enough to deliver. He argues that U.S. foreign policy should return to "doing the right thing," and that this would go a long way to fix the U.S.'s image problem. He argues that real security will be the product of focusing foreign policy on a broad, reasonable bulk of Middle Eastern citizens rather than compromising American values for the assured results of a dictator.