A Standoff

Before the Special Tribunal for Lebanon finalized its initial indictments for the assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri, Hezbollah demanded that Rafik's son and current prime minister, Saad Hariri, disavow the tribunal. Leaks had indicated that the tribunal was going to drop the hammer on several Hezbollah members. Saad Hariri refused to comply, and Hezbollah's political coalition withdrew their ministers from the cabinet, effectively shutting down the government. Turkish - Qatari efforts at mediation failed, as did the previous Saudi - Syrian attempt. As the situation stands, tensions are mounting as an office of the Christian political party affiliated with Hezbollah was recently targeted for a grenade attack. Hezbollah deployed bands of unarmed men around Beirut. Although they did not appear to do anything besides loitering and chatting on walkie-talkies, it was enough to cause schools to shut down. Hariri made a defiant speech declaring that justice for his family and Lebanon will not be sold out because of the opposition's threats of violence.

As it now stands, there is one man who can tip the balance: Walid Jumblatt. His Druze voting bloc can give either coalition a majority and the right to appoint the new prime minister. After the 2008 skirmishes between Hezbollah and Jumblatt's fighters, Jumblatt threw his support behind the Hezbollah - Syria coalition. But now, Jumblatt seems to be at a crossroads. Syria assassinated his father decades ago. After a car bomb killed Rafik Hariri along with 22 others, Jumblatt was one of the most visible critics of Syria. Recently, he said that there could be "catastrophic consequences" if he sides with Hariri. As the head of a small community in proximity to a superior military force, he has a responsibility for the safety of his people, but at a potentially steep political cost. Jumblatt has said publicly that he will support the Hezbollah-Syrian candidate for prime minister, but he said he could only convince four or five of his bloc's 11 MPs to side with the opposition. Is this a clever maneuver to passive-aggressively cow to Hezbollah and Syria's requests while keeping his personal preference for prime minister in place? Or is Jumblatt's bloc, The Democratic Gathering, really so divided that individual MPs would defy the head of the party and stick their necks out? Or is Jumblatt splitting his MPs so that neither side has a majority and the new prime minister must be negotiated?

We will find out on Monday when the parliament meets with the president to decide who will be prime minister. In the meantime, the Lebanese army is establishing checkpoints and taking defensive positions around government buildings. Grocery stores and pharmacies are seeing people rush to stockpile essentials. Hopefully all this preparation will have been for nought.