Russia and China Hang the Syrian People Out to Dry

A resolution introduced to the United Nations Security Council that sought an unspecified military action in Syria failed to pass. The resolution was vetoed by Russia and China. Both countries have abysmal human rights records and frequently respond to dissent with violence, both are afraid of military intervention on humanitarian grounds becoming a slippery slope. Russia has been especially vocal about the intervention in Libya original, explicit purpose to protect civilians from Gaddafi's troops in Misrata transforming into regime change.

Around 3,000 people have died since the protests began in March and there does not seem to be any internal developments that will lead to a breakthrough. The opposition has organized a group to direct the political and military operations, similar to Libya's Transitional National Council. So far the Syrian opposition have little to show for their efforts with the exception of taking hold of Rastan, a fairly small city in the Homs region. Much of the Syrian National Council's success was attributed to soldiers defecting. In the beginning stages of the protests, reports surfaced of army and intelligence personnel breaking away, but these departures were not indicative of underlying schisms in the military that would eventually lead to significant fractures. The Syrian government seems to have cauterized their defection problem when videos emerged showing soldiers who refused to attack civilians were shot by intelligence officers.

The prospects of President Bashar al-Assad leaving office or serious reforms are looking dire. Structurally, the military and intelligence services continue to be the foundation of Assad's power, with the military under control of his brother and intelligence being directed by his brother-in-law. There will be no Egypt style military coup to usher out the long standing dictator. The United States and Europe have imposed sanctions, but Iran continues to support its client state which to negate international sanctions. Syria has been vital to Iran's foreign interests. Syria actively acts as both agitator and the hub for Iranian weapons, funds, and intelligence for Hamas and Hezbollah. While Iranian support for Shiite militant groups poured across the border into southern Iraq, Syria funneled combatants into the Sunni areas. Syria also has an extensive history of interfering in Lebanese affairs, as well as recently encouraging Palestinian protesters to cross the border into Israel. Some of the leadership of both Hezbollah and Hamas are hosted in Damascus.

Now that the UN Security Council is a dead end with its allies protecting them in the UN Security Council, it appears as if the Assad regime will simply have to wait out the protests. The media continues to draw comparisons between Libya and Syria, but the case of  a distant outlier. It is almost impossible to imagine that the Arab League will support intervention in Syria as it did in Libya. Recently, Russian president Dmitry Medvedev called for Assad to step down or reform, but Medvedev's comments should be regarded as criticism from a concerned individual and not an indication of Russian foreign policy. Similar comments from Vladimir Putin would signal a real change.

The Syrian opposition appears bereft of outside support. Unless they can quickly organize themselves into a coherent political block with an armed wing that can seize and hold towns against the onslaught of the Syrian military, Syria will return to the status quo, much as Iran did in 2009.